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The last couple of
articles concerned pre-flop probabilities.
These are most relevant to NLH tournament
play. This is because most chip movement
occurs pre-flop in NLH tourneys, whereas,
with Limit Hold 'em and Pot Limit Omaha,
most of the action takes place post flop.
The next couple of articles discuss post
flop odds and probabilities. These are
equally interesting to the NLH player, but
they will have less opportunity and
situations to take advantage of this
knowledge.
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Possibly the most useful
probabilities are those surrounding a flush
draw. If you hold two cards of the same
suit, you will flop a made flush slightly
less than 1% of the time. If you are all-in
before the flop, the chances of completing
your flush with all five cards are somewhere
around 6%. More useful though is the
situation when you flop four to your flush:
two hearts in your hand with two hearts on
the flop, or one heart in your hand with
three on the flop.
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Many NLH players will
commit their whole stack heads up in this
situation, but the odds say that really you
shouldn't. You will only complete the flush
around 35% of the time. So if a player has
moved all-in, in front of you, for a large
bet of greater than pot size, the correct
play is probably to pass. You are not
getting good pot odds. You will often see
players making bad calls in this situation.
It is of course different if you move all-in
first to speak. You may only win the pot a
third of the time if someone calls, but of
course you may win the pot 50% of the time,
uncontested, if everyone should pass.
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In Limit Hold 'em
of course, you will rarely win the pot
uncontested, but the Pot Odds
will be different.
In many ways Limit Hold 'em is much more complicated
here. In a $2/$4 game, four players may have
seen the flop. The player in front of you
bets $2 on the flop, and
you can easily justify the pot odds as you are
now calling $2 against a $10 pot. However, there
are variables to consider: how much more you may
have to call to see the final two
cards, and how much more can you win
if you hit the flush. Firstly, a player may
raise behind you and the original bettor
may re-raise. Now you are risking $6 against $20. The
odds aren't as good but are still favourable. But
of course, the flush may not arrive
on the turn, and you may have to call
another $4. Now the risk is $10 against
$28, or possibly $10 against$24 if play becomes
heads up. You are in fact still getting pot
odds, but only just. The second variable is of course
when you hit the flush, how much
will you get paid? If the player will
call a $4 bet on the end, or
better still, a two bet situation may
emerge, .
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Remembering all these
situations and odds isn't as hard as it
initially looks. You will constantly hear
players refer to 'outs'. A flush draw is 9
outs. If you have an open ended straight
draw, you have 8 outs. Most top players just
count their outs, and know the probabilities
of hitting these outs. Next weeks article
will include the 'outs' table and further
explanation.
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